Seasonal start to August; Autumnal through Friday, but summer returns next week
Thursday, August 14, 2014, 3:44 PM - The first 12 days of August have been abnormally “normal” across Southern Ontario.
So far our average high temperature for August 2014 at Pearson has been 26.3°C which is just below the long term average of 26.6°C. What is most noteworthy, though, has been the consistency in our temperatures near that average temperature. So far in August we have not had a day with a high temperature that was more than two degrees above or below the long term “average” temperature for the date.
SUMMER SO FAR: A review of the 2014 forecast
Average or “normal” temperatures are often talked about as if that is what we typically experience at that time of year. However, average temperatures are calculated over a 30-year period and more closely represent the midpoint between the warm and cold weather that has occurred on that date over the years rather than the typical temperature for the date. So, to have the temperature within two degrees of “normal” for 12 consecutive days (actually 13 going back to July 31st) is rather remarkable.
However, our streak of average weather has ended as our weather will feel more like autumn through Friday. Temperatures will be well below seasonal over the next couple of days across southern Ontario with high temperatures only in the mid to upper teens in cottage country and the temperature will struggle to reach 20°C even in the GTA.
The image below (from a forecast model) shows that the coldest temperatures in Canada relative to the local averages will be found across Ontario where the green colors represent temperatures 3 to 7 C below average for the rest of this week.
During the weekend our weather will start to recover closer to seasonal, but we will also have the threat for unsettled weather at times.
Looking ahead to next week, several models show the potential for several days with above seasonal temperature later next week. While potentially too warm, the model forecast shown below (for next Wednesday through next Saturday) illustrates the reversal in the temperature pattern that is expected across the country. The various shades of orange highlight regions (including southern Ontario) where temperatures are forecast to be above seasonal during the middle and end of next week.
While it is too early determine which days will be the warmest due to the threat for clouds at times and the potential for lake breezes, we will be keeping an eye on the potential to reach 30°C at Pearson for the first time since June 30th.
The models disagree on where the pattern goes after as we head into the final week of August, but it looks like we will have at least a temporary cool down during the week. However, the pattern for September should bring periods of above seasonal temperatures at times. While this summer has not brought very much hot weather to southern Ontario, there is still plenty of warm weather that is yet to come after we get through the next few days.
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