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No heat in the long range: Cool and unsettled for the weekend and next week

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Dr. Doug Gillham
Meteorologist, PhD

Wednesday, July 23, 2014, 1:18 PM - On Tuesday Downtown Toronto officially reached 30.0ºC for just the second time this summer.

Pearson airport topped 30ºC three times during the month of June, but it has not reached that mark yet during the month of July. Yesterday’s high came up just short at 29.8ºC, and it is unlikely that we will get close to 30ºC again during the next two weeks.

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A cold front crossed the region early this morning and this afternoon will be noticeably cooler and less humid with a north wind gusting to near 50 km/h.

Thursday and Friday will be pleasant summer days with lots of sunshine, mixing with clouds at times. While temperatures will be a couple degrees below seasonal, highs of 24 to 26ºC will be quite enjoyable for most outdoor activities.

However, the dry weather will not last for very long into the weekend. We should see some sun to start the day on Saturday, but clouds will increase during the day with a period of showers and scattered thunderstorms likely during the afternoon or evening.

Sunday will bring similar conditions. There will be rain-free periods, but we will continue to see the threat for showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening.

For next week, a slow moving upper level low will bring occasional showers and cooler temperatures. Each day will bring periods of dry weather with a mixture of sun and clouds, but we will also have the threat for showers each day, especially early in the week. High temperatures will be in the lower 20s across most of southern Ontario, but in cottage country high temperatures will only be in the teens Monday through Wednesday.

Temperatures will slowly recover towards the end of next week, but there is no sign of any hot weather in the long range forecast. For the Civic long weekend temperatures should be near to just below seasonal.

The image below shows a model forecast for the long weekend. Regions with various shades of blue (including the GTA and cottage country) are expected to have temperatures of 1 to 3 degrees C below what we typically see during early August. Our average high temperatures during early August are near 27ºC in the GTA and 24ºC in Muskoka.

It is too early to determine the threat for rain on specific days during the long weekend. At this point we do not see signs of a major system, but with the expected pattern we will likely see the threat for at least scattered showers at times. We will continue to post updates as we get closer to the long weekend.

Five things you need to know about Wednesday, July 23
Hottest day of the month for the GTA
Severe thunderstorm threat covers parts of the Prairies
Widespread thunderstorm risk stretches across eastern Canada

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