Lake-effect snow and record cold for the Northeast this week
Meteorologist
Wednesday, February 10, 2016, 2:42 PM - As a strong upper level low descends through into the New England area for the weekend it will usher in what could possibly be record setting cold across parts of the eastern U.S.
New England as well as parts of Upstate New York are getting an initial blast of cooler air for Wednesday night through Friday.
This initial surge of Arctic air is bringing with it lake effect snow but is just a small taste for what is to come on the weekend. Shown below are forecast temperatures for Sunday morning, which is when the cold is expected to peak.
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This image gives a good perspective of how widespread the cold will be with the freezing line expected to reach as far south as the Florida Panhandle through the Gulf States.
Saturday is when the arctic front is set to clear much of the Eastern U.S. except for the southeast and Gulf States. Saturday’s high temperatures across parts of the northeast could be at a record setting low. Generally we are expecting highs to be anywhere from 18 F to possibly 32 F below normal. The figure below shows forecast temperature in white compared to the climate average in blue.
Thus areas near Syracuse for example could see a maximum temperature near 3 F which is about 31 F below the climate average. Another important factor is that forecasted highs for Saturday are expected to be reached in the early morning hours with temperatures steadily declining through the day.
Saturday night into Sunday morning is when the arctic front is set to drop south to the Gulf States giving lows that will approach record values and possibly even see a few records fall across parts of the northeast. Note worthy is New York City which could see its coldest morning temperature since 1994 and possibly set a new low temperature record early Sunday morning with the current forecast showing a low near 1 F for Central Park. Philadelphia will also flirt with its record low temperature of 2 F with a Sunday mornings temperature forecast to be about 3 F.
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With the cold arctic air invading the northeast lake effect snow will develop for Western New York, the Finger Lakes Region, as well for the northern parts of Central New York. The initial surge of arctic air Wednesday through Friday will bring about the worst of the lake effect snow. Areas that will have the greatest impact will be along the I-90 from Pennsylvania through to West Seneca, the Rochester area, and the I-81 corridor from Syracuse northward through to the Belleville region.
Accumulations near 7”-15” are expected from Wednesday through to Friday morning for Western New York and the Finger Lakes Region. Areas just north of Syracuse could see anywhere from 11”-21” through Friday morning. Winds will turn more southwesterly on Friday which will shove the lake effect snow northward and may bring some heavier lake effect snow into Buffalo and have it continue for Central New York mainly toward the Belleville area.
Into the weekend as the coldest air descends into the region the lake effect snow will continue but is expected to taper off in intensity. Although the air will be extremely cold it will also be quite dry to the point where it may be too much for the lake to overcome. Meaning that Saturday and Sunday will see persistent but light lake effect snow with no significant accumulations expected.
