Canada's Easter weekend forecast

Thursday, March 24, 2016, 6:40 PM -

The Easter long weekend is starting off on a stormy note across eastern Canada as a major weather system is delivering a mix of snow, ice pellets, and freezing rain to Ontario and Quebec on Thursday. As the storm tracks east on Good Friday messy weather will be en route for Atlantic Canada as well. Once we clear this system from the board however, a warming trend should lead to improving conditions for the latter part of the weekend, leading up to a clear and mild Easter Sunday ahead of the next storm threat on Monday.

In the west, unsettled weather on Thursday will give way to clearing for British Columbia and Alberta on Friday, though a push of colder air from the north will bring falling temperatures to Saskatchewan and Manitoba. After a quiet Saturday, Easter Sunday will bring a prolonged series of storms to the Pacific coast, putting rain back into the forecast for the Lower Mainland.

Good Friday

As our eastern system tracks through the St. Lawrence valley and into Atlantic Canada on Good Friday, heavy rain, snow, and mixed wintry precipitation will bring significant impacts from Quebec to Newfoundland, pushing eastward throughout the day. However conditions will improve in the wake of the system, allowing clearing to take over across eastern and southern Ontario through the day on Friday.

Meanwhile in the west, a cold area of high pressure will move down from the territories into the central Prairies, bringing northerly winds and falling temperatures to Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Weak ridging and Pacific air will allow British Columbia and Alberta to remain mild however, as lingering precipitation from Thursday’s storm diminishes through the day.

Saturday

Things are considerably quieter for Saturday, with only a weak disturbance tracking through the Great Lakes to bring some light snow to northern Ontario and Quebec. The center of cold air in the Prairies shifts east into western Ontario, but a nice warming trend will begin to set up in the east, as southerly flow brings warmer air into southern Ontario and Quebec.

Easter Sunday

For your Easter Sunday, the next system moves on shore for British Columbia, bringing a return of rain to lower elevations and snow to the mountains. Elsewhere, quiet weather will prevail, though a weak disturbance will bring the chance for some evening and overnight showers to southern Ontario.

Warm air will continue to push north, making Easter Sunday the mildest day of the period across much of the east, as temperatures across much of southern Ontario climb into the teens. Flow off the lake will keep some areas a bit cooler, but on the whole Sunday looks to be the most pleasant day of the holiday long weekend for many.

As this temperature anomaly map shows, warm air will be widespread across much of the east on Sunday. In this region, only Newfoundland, Labrador, and far northern Quebec will be below seasonal. Colder air will be easier to come by in the central part of the country however, as much of western Ontario, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan will experience cooler than seasonal conditions. Much of the northern and western Prairies and the Mountain West will be mild, but precipitation may suppress temperatures a bit to near normal for the Lower Mainland of B.C.

Monday

As we wrap up the holiday weekend on Monday, we’ll be watching the potential for our next storm system in the east. The timing and track of this system are still uncertain, but milder temperatures will make this system less of a winter weather event for southern locations including Toronto and Montreal.