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Scattered showers continue for the southern coast Tuesday with another heavy system moving in Tuesday night. Up to 100 mm of rain is possible as well as powerful winds. Next chance for sun? Not until Friday.

A Pacific Punch: Heavy rains, winds, and long-range Ana tracking


Tyler Hamilton
Meteorologist

Tuesday, October 21, 2014, 5:38 PM - Some "power showers" moved through the region Monday night, via a moist unstable southwest flow.


EXTENDED ACTIVE WEATHER COVERAGE: Tune in to The Weather Network for live updates on the weather in your area. Our team of reporters and meteorologists in the field provide you with the most accurate and up-to-date coverage.


The amount of convective available potential energy (think fuel) is unusually high for these regions, so short-lived down bursts, heavy rains and isolated lightning were reported Monday night.

Simulated composite reflectivity (HRRR) for the Lower Mainland. Popcorn power showers indeed Monday night

Pro tip: Unclog your storm drains

Heavy rains are forecast beginning Tuesday night and the GFS has finally found some consistency.

Below, the image looks like a complicated game of Tetris or Jenga, but don't fret -- Less swings from run to run (although one thing to take note, the heaviest precipitation has moved about six hours ahead, according to the GFS)

Heaviest rains Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon hours, which is further intensified by a rapidly developing surface low SW of Vancouver Island

Wind event Tuesday evening

The NAM model has been picking up on this compact run for several days now, and the other global models are also in some sort of agreement. Winds will begin to pick up for coastal regions (highlighted in orange) around dinner time, and peak before midnight (PST).

  • Expected wind gusts 60-80 km/hr in the regions shaded in orange
  • Localized power outages possible for the portions of the Gulf Islands

See the symbol with a little triangle on the end of it? That's a wind barb. And one of those triangles denotes wind speeds in excess of 50 knots. Typically those wind speeds are found at higher parts of the atmosphere, but it's possible some of those could mix down to the surface tomorrow evening, over the water

LONG RANGER

Q: Where in the world will Hurricane Ana end up?

A: Ensembles and deterministic models are both picking up on the remnants of Hurricane Ana, as it recurves around a ridge of high pressure and impacts the BC coast early next week. Way too early to indicate what may happen...

Ex-Hurricane Ana already has a fairly strong single in the NAEF system (2nd black boxes) -- only time will tell

Ana, will be able to sustain itself and its tropical characteristics as long as the system remains over temperatures in excess of 26C or so. So by next weekend the system will undergo transition to a mid-latitude cyclone north of 35 degrees latitude.

I mentioned the global models were hinting at a significant windstorm with Ana, but we're not at a place in forecasting science where a model run seven days into the future produces very reliable results. This can only be treated as a possible solution in myriad of other potential outcomes.

So to reiterate, very low confidence right now.

Ana, is that you?

That's all for now. Don't forget, you can always reach me on Twitter @50shadesofvan and use the hashtag #BCstorm.

Tune into the weather Network on TV as we'll also be tracking national stories such as a possible Nor'easter for Atlantic Canada mid-week.

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