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While there is often low confidence in such long range forecasts, confidence in the upcoming pattern change is much higher than usual. It also looks like this pattern will stick around for quite a while. The following image shows a model forecast for temperatures relative to average for the first 10 days of February. While British Columbia and northern Alberta may see a relaxation of the cold temperatures, the rest of the country should see a continuation of the well below seasonal temperatures well into February.

The final image shows a model forecast for February 10 - 20th. Our confidence in the forecast this far out is diminished but the overall message is very clear - we are headed back into an extended period of cold weather. After our intermission from winter, Act 2 may well outdo what we experienced during December and early January.


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