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Will Karen affect eastern Canada?


By Dayna Vettese
Meteorologist
@daynavettese
Saturday, October 5, 2013, 11:29 AM

Karen is forecast to make landfall in the northern Gulf States sometime late Saturday or early Sunday. Though there is still a bit of uncertainty as to what strength Karen will be as it makes landfall, what is certain is that the southeastern United States will receive strong winds and heavy rain.

Karen's forecast track via the National Hurricane Center.

Karen's forecast track via the National Hurricane Center.

Visible satellite imagery of Karen at 11:45am EDT on October 4

Visible satellite imagery of Karen at 11:45am EDT on October 4

What does this mean for eastern Canada? First off, we have a Colorado Low affecting parts of Ontario already with rain and thunderstorms. This low is forecast to continue to affect Ontario through the weekend as the centre of the low begins to move through on Sunday. As the low slides through Ontario, it will grab moisture from the south and what is lurking to the south? Karen, or what is left of Karen. The storm centre of Karen itself will not impact Ontario but rather the moisture associated with Karen will feed into the storm system that will move through early next week. Below are three forecast models and their solution for Sunday evening with Karen and the Colorado Low.

ECMWF model for Sunday evening

ECMWF model for Sunday evening

GFS model for Sunday evening

GFS model for Sunday evening

NAM model for Sunday

NAM model for Sunday

The Colorado Low will continue its trek east early next week toward Atlantic Canada bringing the rain and thunderstorms with it. As we saw in Ontario, the low will continue to tap into moisture to the south included that associated with Karen or Karen’s remnant during what looks like the Tuesday timeframe. Below is the GFS forecast model’s solution for the Wednesday morning timeframe in Atlantic Canada.

GFS model for Wednesday

GFS model for Wednesday

It doesn’t appear as though Karen will directly impact eastern Canada but rather will indirectly aid in supplying moisture to the Colorado Low that will be affecting us here. Ontarians will have an unsettled weekend with the risk of showers and thunderstorms throughout. Maritimers can expect a fairly decent weekend with an unsettled start to the work- or school-week once the Colorado Low makes its way in. Newfoundlanders will continue to have an unsettled weekend with a stubborn low to the north of them, get a bit of a break to start the week then feel the effects of the Colorado Low mid-week.

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