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What’s left of Karen drenches U.S., Atlantic Canada safe


By Dayna Vettese
Meteorologist
@daynavettese
Thursday, October 10, 2013, 8:18

A low pressure system, containing what is left of what once was Tropical Storm Karen, is meandering up the east coast of the United States. It has prompted Gale Warnings up and down the U.S. east coast as well as numerous other advisories, watches and warnings. Areas such as North Carolina’s Outer Banks up to Atlantic City, New Jersey and portions of New York’s Long Island are to be affected by this system.

Bulletins issued by the National Weather Service (Philadelphia/Mount Holly Office) in the United States as of 2pm EDT on October 9, 2013.

Bulletins issued by the National Weather Service (Philadelphia/Mount Holly Office) in the United States as of 2pm EDT on October 9, 2013.

The bad news for our friends south of the border is that a high pressure system to the north is blocking this storm system from moving anywhere fast so it is an unsettled week ahead for residents of the U.S. east coast. Forecast models are outlining up to 75 mm of rain (3 inches) with locally higher amounts possible in some locations.

GFS forecast model's precipitation total solution from October 9 through the morning of October 14, 2013. Totals in inches.

GFS forecast model's precipitation total solution from October 9 through the morning of October 14, 2013. Totals in inches.

Much of the anticipated beach erosion and possible coastal flooding will occur during local high tides. The blocking high pressure system to the north will help increase the pressure gradient with this storm system increasing the winds along the coast. Wind gusts could reach as high as 80 km/h on exposed coastal regions throughout the week.

The good news for us here in Canada, specifically the Atlantic Provinces, is that the high pressure system will keep the low south throughout the week and even for Thanksgiving weekend. It looks as though a stretch of pleasant fall weather is in store for Atlantic Canada right through to the holiday Monday. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-to-high teens for the Maritimes (with cool overnight lows and the risk of frost due to clear skies).

Global Canadian forecast model indicating how high pressure system is blocking the low pressure system to the south.

Global Canadian forecast model indicating how high pressure system is blocking the low pressure system to the south.

Temperatures will be slightly on the cooler side for Newfoundland as a separate low moves to the north of the province bringing cooler temperatures and the slight chance of some showers. Only the slightest of chances for a passing shower in the Maritimes to end the week but the majority of the next five days will be dry.

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